General Elections at year end?

"KLCI hit an all time high" exclaims the front page of New Straits Times,Monday 29th Oct o7Another of "Malaysia's once best selling paper's" unworthy headline. Isn't it obvious? Well if you are still puzzled by my skeptical view of Malaysia's "brilliant economic performance," it is probably because you actually believed the news reported by NST press. Of late, NST is becoming less relevant to the Malaysian public. It has replaced Utusan Malaysia as the unofficial mouthpiece of the government. Frankly, I am delighted by Utusan's current boldness, especially in the forum section of its Sundays circulation. Well done to its group of editors. I found myself choosing Utusan over NST on weekends, just to highlight my utter disgust at my once favourite newspaper! Well, enough said about the state of Malaysian press, let us now focus on the main issue-the economic state and possibilities of general elections before we say goodbye to 2007?

The KLCI could reach 5000 points beating CAC 40 and FTSE for all I care, but does it actually reflect Malaysia's economic health? The answer is both yes and no. It is an indicator of economic strength as argued by monetarists, but many agree that it is weak and less reliable. As we know, an economy is measured by its total gross domestic product (GDP) and its strength is reflected by the progress of the GDP on a yearly basis, or simply put as growth. The share market reflects a proportion of the GDP, hence it is not accurate to draw assumptions that the economy is strong, judging solely on its share market performance. Nonetheless, it is the simplest indicator and Malaysian politicians' favourite statistic to quote.

In my opinion, the only reason this issue won the right to be the cover story of the credibility damaged press is because it is an order to hype it up by the Prime Minister and his cabinet members. Why? Purely political- the general elections. Report has it that the Prime Minister, has decided on a date to dissolve parliament, and it is the 25th November. What fueled this speculation is UMNO's refusal to reschedhule its AGM, despite the meeting running over the Deepavali holiday. Furthermore, Samy Vellu who came in defence of UMNO's decision,voiced out that "it is near the end of the year", and the single most important political party in Malaysia hasn't hosted its general meeting yet. This hints that the general elections is just a whisk away because UMNO is rushing to put its house in order and its campaign machinery at full swing before year end. In no way the general elections could be called before UMNO's internal spring cleaning and image strengthening ( more of keris waving fiasco) at the AGM. Therefore, the "feel good" economic factor needs to be generated throughout November, and quoting a credible source, government servants are due to receive "special bonus" at year end, which is as good as confirming the date of the elections before 2007 runs out.

Well, why the end of the year? Why not just wait for 2008, at least it will be a solid 4 years of Abdullah's first term as elected PM. 45 months into a government is an immature time to call for yet another general elections, but if Abdullah is to continue his leadership and Khairy Jamaluddin is to realise his ambitions of being PM by 40, the nation has to take to the polls very soon. In fact, from my political observation, the end of the year is the best time to hold the elections if BN is to maintain an above 80percent control of the Dewan Rakyat. There are at least three cases which would damage BN's credibility and affect its performance if the elections are schedhuled for the end of first half of 2008 and above.

Firstly, is the Altantuya murder trial. Although this case has received less attention of late, but its outcome is much feared by UMNO's top guns. The Altantuya murder case will not only affect Najib Razak whom is said to have his hands in all the mess, but it could rip down the whole credibility of Abdullah's administration in particular. Abdullah could not claim to be Mr. Clean anymore because he decided to keep Najib in the cabinet and not seek an independent commission to investigate the claim of Najib's involvement further. Like it or not, Najib is the winner of this political game. He did not just escape the whole conflict tangibly unscathed but had made valuable political gains. Najib has tied Abdullah into this whole fiasco, and brought with him UMNO's already smeared reputation. Therefore, if the parliament is dissolved in the next opportunity which is March 2008, the case will have gotten deep enough to involve big names and ruin BN's campaign. Strangely, no opposition leader has capitalised on the fact that Razak Baginda, one of the accused is an UMNO member, although not a high ranking office bearer, is a prominent behind the scene man of the party.This gives the idea that the opossition parties in Malaysia are only interested in badmouthing big names, and not seriously finding the weak points in the government's arguments. Only when the opposition is able to take advantage of such situation will they then be fully relevant to all Malaysians- including me! I will wait for the day that the Malaysian opposition parties be a formidable force- so to give a good option to the people of this country, who will then in turn make their preference heard.

Secondly, is the issue of Anwar Ibrahim's candidacy. By April 2008, Anwar would be free to run for any public post in Malaysia and the odds are on him to return as an MP. Would Pak Lah allow this to happen? Even the grand old master of Malaysian politics, Dr M, did not tempt his fate against Anwar. Many UMNO members are underwriting the ex-DPM off as an " impotent threat" based on the by-election defeat in Ijok of PKR's candidate, Khalid Ibrahim- in which is Anwar first active campaigning since his arrest in 1998. UMNO big guns are dismissing Anwar mania. But, this is just the first round, and it was not a PKR-UMNO showdown. Had it been, the Malays in Ijok would swing their votes in favour of PKR at least by 30 percent, which would made it harder for BN to retain the seat. Therefore, Abdullah has to carefully bar Anwar's entry by defining the election parameters in his own interest. That is the Prime Minister's special power and he is most likely to take the option. Mr Clean has never been brave throughout his political carreer, "elegant silence" is better interpreted as "dignified cowardice."

The third factor is the internal BN harmony. MCA is not very stable these days. 2008 will be the year of party elections and it could see incumbent being challenged by the amitious uprising politicians. This is coming at a time when MCA is at an all time low with the Chinese voters due to the economic and security issues. MIC is hurt, by the lack of Indian allocation in the new general elections, and PPP is deeply hurt by Ali Rustam's remark. These internal problems, if stretched longer will not heal but it will lead to major cracks. UMNO has to single handedly fight in marginal constituents if say for instance the elections is in the second half of 2008. With PKR gaining momentum and PAS better prepared in Kelantan, BN might just resort to dirtier tactics in the coming elections. After all, 2004 was the dirtiest elections in history of the country, why not give the 50th celebrations of Merdeka a bigger meaning with even dirtier next general elections.

In conclusion, the end of the year is the best time for BN to hold an elections. Catching the opposition fully offguard is not fun to watch, but semi-offguard? It will be intense. Being an UMNO supporter all along, I am interested to see the lobbying for state powers, which I will write later! Till then....