BN- Battle on all fronts

ABDULLAH’S UPCOMING GENERAL ELECTIONS- AN ANALYSIS OF THE BATTLE ON ALL FRONTS!

Leading a government after a landslide victory in the general elections is always a double-edge sword. On one hand, it is easier to pass a piece of legislature which the party strongly believes in, while on the other the party will feel pressured to perform well and repeat its performance in the next elections. The thumb rule in any cycle; be it trade or political is that there is boom and bust. Once you reach the peak, it will be impossible to improve. This is the dilemma facing the Barisan Nasional (BN) government at the moment and to a lesser extent, Gordon Brown’s Labor party. After its massive sweep in the parliamentary seats contested and recapturing Terengganu while coming to within a whisker of Kelantan in the last general elections, BN could not possibly improve on its historic 2004 performance- thanks to the democratic system which we have installed. Had we not practice democracy in its true form as some quarters argue then; we will only have a one party state. Yes, it is true that the form of democracy that we exercise in Malaysia is not purest in its practice, but we ought to remember that a purely democratic state ironically exists only in the extremity of Marxism. Malaysia’s democratic flaw is a matter of behaviors- a never ending debate which has produced many schools of thought, and not concerns on principles. Let us not delve in the realms of political theory and instead focus on predicted performance of the major parties contesting in this up coming general elections, which is rumored to be called for mid-March. What are the issues which will be pivotal in tipping the votes, and who are the spotlight grabbers in this year’s elections?

In my opinion, this general election is unique, and I hope it will be recorded in the history books as such. Why? The reason for such strong claim is that for the first time in Malaysian political history, the ruling government is facing battle on all fronts. There are no compromises like before, all issues carry a heavier weight which adds up to the mounting burden on Abdullah’s shoulders as the leader of the coalition to prove that the last performance was not a fluke. This next general election is one which is seen as a personal battle for the premier. The mandate handed by the public to BN in 2004 was based on the promises of reforms. Malaysians gave Abdullah what he needed, the support underneath his reform platform. Four years down the road, are we better off now? Arguably, BN won handsomely in 2004 because of Abdullah’s appeal and charm as the “new” person walking on the corridors of absolute power, a sentiment which his predecessor, Dr. Mahathir has strongly opposed in the latter’s public speeches. It is true that Abdullah was an asset then, but now is he a liability to the party? This is the notion that Abdullah and his spin doctors and advisers are trying very hard to brush off. The general state of UMNO will be a good point to highlight the success of Abdullah’s tenure. UMNO is stable despite minor factions, and are ready to take on the challenges thrown by the opposition in the general elections. It is very receptive of Abdullah’s leadership- which is not completely ironic. The only trouble which might bother UMNO’s election machineries is BERSIH. The call for “cleaner elections” will be an issue UMNO has to deal with exclusively. Apart from that, the general Malay community are satiated with the premiership, although not much so among urban dwellers. This urban-rural dichotomy is not a big issue because the base of UMNO’s support lies within the rural Malays. Nevertheless, the 2008 elections will be a personal battle for the 68 year old premier and an opportunity for him to cement his legacy. Nevertheless, this veteran politician knows that somehow or rather his political legacy will be tarnished come March 2008. BN is bound to lose the excessive parliamentary seats they currently hold. He acknowledges the fact that it will be an uphill struggle for BN to retain the mandate of 2004, but in his deep worries, the ever smiling gentleman is still optimistic of the ruling coalition’s chances. We will just wait and see.

Why battle on all fronts if it is a personal battle for the premier? On top of Abdullah’s leadership crisis, most of the major component parties in BN are facing deep-rooted issues. MCA is embroiled in struggles within the party and the Chinese community on the whole. There is an imminent rise of factional politics within MCA, barely four years after the still-fresh wound healed. If back then, there existed two distinct camps, A and B, now there is a new faction, a force independent of the two- called C. This new camp comprises of the supporters of Chua Soi Lek- the infamous health minister who was caught on video, pants down with his “personal friend.” Supporters of this well received leader vow to avenge Chua’s downfall, and place him on MCA’s political helm come the party elections in 2009 as they strongly believe that there was a political ploy by the MCA top guns in bringing down Chua. Furthermore, tension seems to resurface between Team A and B in allocations of seats for the elections. There is severe frustration within Team B- led by Chan Kong Choy that Team A-led by Ong Ka Ting are fielding its allies in the secure seats and forcing Team B’s warlords to contest in the hot seats, in which the chances of losing is very high indeed. This might be the master plan of the Ong siblings ( Ong Ka Chuan is the all powerful Secretary General) to consolidate their powers within the party, removing the remnants of Team B from MCA’s hierarchy permanently. This internal turbulence within MCA, reminds me very much of 1987 UMNO. Team B and Team C might collaborate in toppling Team A, just like Musa Hitam and Tengku Razaleigh’s pact which almost brought down the mighty Dr. Mahathir.

Apart from looming internal crisis, MCA is taken to task on the economic prospect of the country. The general Chinese community believes that today’s Malaysia lack economic sense of direction. Despite BN’s attempt to squash this thought by launching one economic power corridor after the other, the small size traders and hawkers could not “feel” the effect trickling down just yet. Hence, to these groups of Chinese who in turn form the bulk of MCA grass roots, the economic uncertainties are spelt clearly on the horizons. Fueled by the anticipation of recession in major global economies, they feel that there will be severe volatility in the trade cycle. Abdullah needs to reassure these troubled MCA grass roots that in his capacity as Finance Minister, Malaysia will sail through the projected economic downtrend. Furthermore, internal security is an issue to the Chinese. The rapid rise of the underground lords and illegal business ring, reminds us of 1960s New York. Many Chinese small and medium size businessmen are worried of being harassed by these mob groups. Doubts over police competency have been raised, and this issue finds its trails all the way back to the Internal Security Ministry- which is led by Abdullah. Although the Chinese are concerned with government policies and not the leaders, Abdullah could not help to fight a personal general elections as all the issues which have been raised are the ones which fall under his direct responsibility in his capacity as ministers of these ministries, and not as the Prime Minister. Therefore, we can rightly suggest that MCA’s predicted stru
ggles at the polls is not much the result of its own incompetence but it is contributed by Abdullah personally and the whole government generally.

A political turmoil in MCA and the Chinese community will usually be balanced with stability in other component parties. Not so, this time around. MIC- the third biggest component party in the coalition is going through a rough patch as well. There is no internal bickering within the party but a notable size of the Indian community is dissatisfied with MIC wholesale. Firstly, it has failed to address the plights and concerns of working class Indians who feel they are economically disadvantaged. This group argues that the MIC backed economic policies benefit a select few- those who are within the inner circles of those higher up in the hierarchy. As a result, this discontented lot is joining the racial discrimination chorus led by their HINDRAF brethrens. On a smaller scale, the business interests of MIC have raised the concerns of party members. It seems the MAIKA Holding issue is a huge scandal of corruption waiting to explode in the face of MIC leaders. Having said that, the corporate issue will not be the main concern of MIC in this coming elections but it is the severity of dissatisfaction leveled at MIC on the issue of Indian welfare. Gerakan on the other hand, is facing a micro-management problem. It seems that the current president, Koh Tsu Koon is said to be an indecisive political personality. He makes an excellent number two, but as a national leader in his own right- Koh himself is still unsure. Finding the right parliamentary seat for him self is his first priority- the seats in Penang are marginal, he might end up not being a member of parliament after all. This is because Penangites are known for their tendency to vote for BN in the state elections and the opposition for parliamentary seats. On top of that, DAP is making as serious bid for the Penang’s state leadership, which might deny BN of its two-third control of the state legislative. Therefore, it is a battle on all fronts for the BN coalition with all the major parties having their hand full with issues.

How is the opposition gearing up? They are unfortunately far from ready. There still is bickering over seat allocations and there lack a clear common sense of directions. Nonetheless, these opposition parties are becoming stronger individually by the day. DAP is charging strongly to claim Penang’s leadership while PKR is making inroads in Sabah, Sarawak and other non-Malay areas. PAS looks steady and stable enough to get a stronger grip of Kelantan’s state legislature. DAP has offered the best form of a shadow government just yet by offering its own version of the National Budget. This financial plan is a good combination of monetary and fiscal management with strong emphasis on the Malaysian economic fundamentals. On the other hand, Anwar Ibrahim is a force to be reckoned with. Despite the elections being almost certain to be called in March- just weeks before Anwar’s ban on his contesting eligibility is lifted, the de facto PKR leader is still a crowd magnet for the party. It is rumored that the PKR president who will be defending her Permatang Pauh seat will win and serve for only a year before quitting and calling for a by- election which will then hand over Anwar’s former parliamentary constituency back to the still-ambitious politician, 10 years after losing it. But, rest assured it is not as easy as it might be for Anwar- a by- election will see BN’s full campaign machinery on Permatang Pauh and this means full scale war short of nuclear capabilities. Shifting away from the leadership focus, PKR’s continuing call for transparent governance and exposing corruption within the judiciary, will win them popular vote among democratic conscious urban voters. This proves to be their strongest and biggest political base ever.

Finally, on a lighter note, the continuing criticism from the newly-recovered, healthy Dr. Mahathir- which has vowed to remain a thorn on Abdullah’s side will make this elections not just issue driven but personal as well. Dr. Mahathir has further lambasted Abdullah on his incompetence and has accused the premier for overstaying the welcome as a leader. He notoriously revealed a “gentlemen agreement” ala Brown-Blair, strucked between the two while Dr. Mahathir was still in power. Part of the agreement has Abdullah agreeing to not seek a second term in office and allow Najib to be the next prime minister of Malaysia. Nonetheless, Dr. Mahathir is putting his political nemesis in deep political trouble. Najib is caught between allegiance to Abdullah and gratitude towards Mahathir, which means the opportunity cost for any of his decision is huge and we might see the end of this political shinning star. In conclusion, BN is not going to have it easy this time around; the battle is on all fronts- from deep internal divides to economic, leadership, religion and racial tensions. Majorities will be slashed and a few prominent candidates might get politically butchered. It is interesting to see how it unfolds.